I have no favoritism towards or bias against any country of
the world. However, I do not subscribe to the views aired about fall of the US
and the rise of Asian Dragon and Tiger to the position of superpowers in near
future. My understanding in this respect is very simple and straightforward. I
am of the opinion that the future of a great nation depends mainly upon its
social and intellectual capital—what position a country occupies in
contributing to the knowledge bank of the humanity.
I had
long time back come across an advertisement of a financially dwindling business
establishment, which read something like this: "leave us with our people,
we will make it again". A nation should never be measured by its economic
indices; but by the human capital it possesses. The fundamental nature of
any economy is invariably cyclical, whereas, if nurtured properly, the
progression of human capital tends to be vertical and ever rising.
Where is
the abundance of intellectual powers in India and China? How many inventions or innovations they have
contributed to the world in the modern age? Is it possible to sustain progress
through borrowed ideas? I believe in a concept called "effortless
efficiency" which can be initiated by the use of intellectual capital
only. Industrial growth calls for human industriousness-- resulting in traders’
mindset and labor-class ethics and values.
As such, the backward countries of the world are not poor in
their natural resources, rather are invariably rich in resources; hence their
poverty can be ascribed to their inadequate intellectual wealth and lowly
social capital. No country can make any perceptible progress without
popularization of quality education among its citizens. This is the
prerequisite for all round progress of a nation. I have traveled frequently to
some African countries in last couple of years. These countries are very rich
in their abundant natural wealth. But all said and done their social and intellectual
backwardness is visible on the surface. Any discernible mind can attribute
their economic backwardness and poverty to their poor social and intellectual
capital. Corruption, poor standard of ethics, lack of reliability, lethargy and
rampant social exploitation are the defining characteristics of these
societies. Unruly rat race for wealth and material aggrandizement has further
complicated their dreams of development. Almost all African, Asian, Latin
American and Eastern European nations, barring some handful of exceptions,
share the same problem of poverty of social capital and impoverished
intellectual capital. This observation has made me to conclude that poverty and
economic backwardness are the direct and proportionate outcome of social and intellectual
poverty.
Today’s
unfolding thought milieu is shifting from the gross to the subtle; from
"brawn to brain". More than three decades ago, Alvin Toffler had
written his celebrated book called "Power Shift", in which he had
emphasized on the perceptible changes occurring in human civilization, and how
the economic power is shifting in an evolutionary process from gross assets
like land, building to currency notes, bank balance, plastic money, and of
course, today's online virtual money. Similarly, in ancient days’ rudimentary
societies, the political power was vested on tribal chieftains-- they were
physically strong and hardy; but gradually the shift has evolved towards
republics, parliamentary democracy etc, with stress upon the sovereignty of the
masses. The time is not far when the
intellectuals of the world will wield the power-- the shift is from "brawn
to brain"--the wealthy and the mighty without intellectual abilities will
crumble giving way to an intellectual order worldwide. When Toffler wrote his
book computer and software industries had hardly made any significant headway
in the US or anywhere in the world. Toffler's vision has come true with the
software industry, based on revolutionary intellectual properties, replaced to
a large extent the gross industrial sector by its burgeoning bottom line. The shift is evident.
The US is
the largest economy in the world, though troubled by frequent engagements in
wars, the economic prudence diluted by extreme liberalism in the financial
sector and other internal factors like the vested interests of some large
corporation and lobbyists. Despite these
temporary imbalances, the US will bounce back to its position of dominance and
supremacy maybe in a different and nobler form. The critics will depreciate my
view but I believe my point of view is equally strong or rather stronger than
many critics as their observations are based on statistics and my observations
are based on human dynamics and creative ingenuity—the social and intellectual
capitals of a nation.
I have stated before about that advertisement stressing upon the
significance of manpower for revival. The US has the largest intellectual
capital in the world; temporary depletion of economic capital will be well
compensated by the abundance of intellectual capital they have. This
intellectual capital has flourished in that country for more than a century now
attracting best brains from all over the world. They have the best
entrepreneurial spirits in their people, which were instrumental in building
their fabulous economy and putting them at the center stage of the world,
unlike the citizens of many other countries characterized by their fondness for
security at the cost of enterprise. Hence, the US today has largely diversified
activities unheard of in many countries. These seminal factors will see a major
transformation in that country; and to my belief, the US will again emerge as a
major power with a very refined new age perception.
The US is still the global thought leader with very rich human
capital, and promisingly the economy is turning around with positive growth
trend (1.7%, last quarter). Human
dignity, justice delivery system and freedom of the citizens are zealously
protected at all levels (with the recent exception of the clandestine
activities of NSA), unlike the bookish and theoretical freedom, justice and
equality granted to the citizens of India; and are conspicuous by their absence
in China. What I intend to highlight is—a fair society with abundance of
quality human capital always have the
tenacity to revive itself with certain structural changes, whereas a corrupt
and unfair society disintegrates and crumbles on the face of economic crises..
Incidentally the US is the tenth most fair society in the world, and perhaps
the fairest society among the countries having fifty million population or
more. These are the inherent strength of the US to bring it back to health and
prosperity again shattering many myths about the rising stars in the global
horizon.